Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
